Outlook - January to March 2011

During Jan-Mar, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over and east of New Zealand. Temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island.

Temperatures are likely to be average or above average in eastern regions and are very likely to be above average elsewhere.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal in most districts, but normal or above normal in the eastern North Island and normal or below normal in the west and south of the South Island. 

Normal soil moisture levels and stream flows are expected in all regions.

The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average for the November – May period. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.