Outlook - December 2010 to February 2011

During Dec-Feb, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over and south of New Zealand. Temperatures are likely to be above average or average in all districts. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be below normal in the western South Island, normal or below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere.

Temperatures are likely to be above average or average in all districts.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be below normal in the western South Island, normal or below normal in the north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere. The typical La Niña patterns sees a gradient in rainfall in the north and east of the North Island, tending to be wetter in eastern Northland, coastal Bay of Plenty and Gisborne, and drier farther south and inland.

Summer soil moisture levels and stream flows are very likely to be below normal in the west and south of the South Island, and are likely to be near normal or below normal in all other regions.

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (November–May). The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average for the November – May period. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.
 

See our full December 2010 - February 2011 climate outlook