Retrospective - August to October Outlook

The climate we predicted and what actually happened.

August – October mean sea level pressures were projected to be above normal near New Zealand.  Pressures were indeed above normal over the North Island, but were below normal over southern parts of the country, resulting in a westerly flow anomaly.

Predicted rainfall: Rainfall is likely to be near normal in most regions, for August-October as a whole.  The exception is the lower half of the North Island, with normal or below normal rainfalls likely in the west, and normal or above normal rainfalls likely in the east.

Outcome: The extremely wet September strongly influenced the rainfall outcome, with the seasonal rainfall being well above normal for most of the North Island south of about Auckland, as well as northern South Island, Buller, parts of the Westcoast, inland Canterbury, around Invercargill and inland Otago. But in essence, rainfall was near normal in all other parts of New Zealand.

Predicted air temperature: Early spring temperatures are likely to be near average or above average across the country.  However, short-term cold snaps and frosty periods typical of early spring will still occur.

Outcome: Temperatures were (correctly) predicted to be average or above average in all 6 districts; with much of the North Island and east of South Island being above average, and the remainder of the South Island being closer to average.