Outlook - November 2010 to January 2011

During Nov-Jan, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal over and south of New Zealand. Temperatures are very likely to be above average in all districts. Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, near normal over the southwest North Island and the northern South Island, and normal or below normal over the rest of the South Island.

Temperatures are likely or very likely to be above average in all districts.

Seasonal rainfall is likely to be near normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, near normal over the southwest North Island and the northern South Island, and normal or below normal over the rest of the South Island.

Soil moistures and stream flows are likely to be above normal in the east of the North Island, near normal in the western North Island and northern South Island, and below normal over the rest of the South Island.

Tropical cyclone activity is likely to be near- or above-normal this season (November–May). The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is slightly above the long-term average. On average, at least one ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 9 out of 10 cyclone seasons.

See our full November 2010 - January 2011 climate outlook