Outlook - May to July 2010

During May-July, mean sea level pressures are likely to be below normal south of the country, with enhanced westerly flow over New Zealand. Temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island, and average or above average in the South Island. Rainfall is likely to be near normal over much of the country, but normal or below normal in eastern regions and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island.

Temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island, and average or above average in the South Island.

Rainfall is likely to be near normal over much of the country, but normal or below normal in eastern regions and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island.

Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain above average in the Tasman Sea, and below average to the south and southeast of New Zealand.

Normal or below normal soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely in all regions of New Zealand during May-July, except for the west and south of the South Island where normal or above normal conditions are considered likely.

In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown
(30% and 20% respectively).