Outlook - February to April 2010

Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country, with a slightly enhanced west or southwest flow anomaly over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be average or below average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal over the north of the North Island, below normal in the east of the North Island, and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island. Normal rainfall is expected elsewhere.

Temperatures are expected to be average or below average everywhere.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal over the north of the North Island, below normal in the east of the North Island, and normal or above normal in the west and south of the South Island. Normal rainfall is expected elsewhere.

River flows and soil moistures are likely to be near normal or below normal in the North Island, near normal in the north and east of the South Island, and normal or above normal in the western South Island.

Tropical cyclone activity in the southwest Pacific is expected to be near-normal through to May. The risk of an ex-tropical cyclone passing close to New Zealand is a little below the long-term average. On average during moderate El Niño conditions, an ex-tropical cyclone passes within 500km of New Zealand in 6 or 7 out of 10 cyclone seasons.

In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown
(30% and 20% respectively).