What happened in December, how our climate outlook for the previous three months turned out, global and local sea temperatures, and our outlook for January to March.
During December 2009, higher than normal pressures over the Tasman Sea and New Zealand (particularly over the North Island) resulted in sunny skies and more frequent southwesterly winds over the country. This pattern is typical of El Niño conditions, and has contributed to the lower than normal rainfall in the north and east and higher than normal rainfall in the west and south of the country.
Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand. Temperatures are expected to be average or below average everywhere. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the northern South Island, and near normal elsewhere.
The climate we predicted and what actually happened.
El Niño conditions are well-established, and are expected to persist at moderate intensity through the rest of the summer, before weakening during the autumn. Over the coming three months, mean sea level pressures are likely to be above normal to the north of the country and lower than normal to the south, with stronger than normal westerlies over New Zealand.
