Global Setting - August 2009

A weak El Niño is present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and is expected to persist through to the autumn of 2010. Forecast guidance indicates some El Niño-like conditions affecting New Zealand in the coming three-month season. Mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal with more southwesterly winds than usual.

Differences from average global sea surface temperatures for 2 August to 29 August 2009. Map courtesy of NOAA Climate Diagnostics Centre.

Monthly values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a measure of changes in atmospheric pressures across the Pacific, and the 3-month mean (black line). Estimated SOI mean values: August -0.7; June to August average -0.3. 

Differences from normal August surface temperatures in the seas around New Zealand. .

Sea surface temperatures

Sea surface temperatures near New Zealand are expected to be somewhat below average through September-November, especially east of the country.