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Outlook - June to August 2009

Mean sea level pressures are likely to be lower than normal to the north of the country during winter, with an easterly or south-easterly flow anomaly over New Zealand. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to be average or below average through the June-August period.

Temperatures are expected to be near average in most regions, but average or below average in the east of the South Island.

Rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal over the north and east of the North Island, and normal elsewhere except for normal or below normal in the west of the South Island.

Soil Moisture Normal or above normal soil moisture levels are likely in most locations.

Stream Flows normal or above normal streamflows are likely in the northern North Island and the east of the South Island. Normal or below normal streamflows are likely in the west and south of the South Island, and normal streamflows are likely elsewhere.


In this example below, the climate models suggest that below normal conditions are likely (50% chance), but, given the variable nature of the climate, the chance of normal or above normal conditions is also shown (30% and 20% respectively).

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