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Global setting and climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

La Niña weakening

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

La Niña conditions have continued to weaken during May, and overall the tropical Pacific ENSO indicators are close to neutral, although some remnants of La Niña persist. A positive subsurface temperature anomaly persists west of the Date Line, and a new positive anomaly has developed near South America above 100 m. The SOI eased further in May and became slightly negative at –0.5, with a 3-month March to May mean of +0.4. The near-equatorial trade winds weakened during the month.

Sea surface  temperatures(SST) around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the New Zealand region remain above normal, as part of the remaining ‘warm horseshoe’ associated with La Niña in the southern extra-tropics. The May SST anomaly in the New Zealand box was around +0.6 °C, showing little change from +0.7 °C in April.

Outlook for June to August 2008

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

In the New Zealand region, mean sea level pressures are expected to remain higher than normal to the south of the South Island and lower than normal to the northwest of New Zealand, withmore winds from the northeast than normal over the country. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to remain above normal.

Air temperatures are likely to be above average in the North Island, average or above in the north of the South Island, and near average in the remainder of the South Island over winter. Rainfall is expected to be near normal in all regions, except for normal or above normal in the east of the North Island, and normal or below normal in the southeast of the South Island. Soil moisture levels and stream flows are expected to be normal or above normal in the north of the North Island, normal or below normal in the southwest of the North Island, and normal elsewhere, except for normal or above normal stream flows in the east of the North Island.

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