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Global setting and climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

La Niña likely to remain until autumn

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

A moderate to strong La Niña episode is in progress across the entire equatorial and tropical Pacific, and is very likely to persist through autumn 2008. Below normal sea surface temperatures extend from 160° E to the South American coast, while a ‘horseshoe’ shaped pattern of relatively warm surface water continues in the extra-tropics of both hemispheres.

Sea surface temperatures(SST) around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (differences from normal) in the New Zealand region are positive andconsistent with a La Niña event. The January SST anomaly in the New Zealand box was +0.4 °C, with the November to January average anomaly about +0.2 °C. The most persistent positive anomalies are still west of the country in the mid and southern Tasman Sea. SST around New Zealand are expected to remain close to or above normal during the next three months

Outlook for February to April 2008

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

In the New Zealand region late summer mean sea level pressures are expected to be higher than normal over and east of New Zealand and the Tasman Sea, and lower than normal to the north, with more easterly winds on to northern New Zealand, and lighter winds than normal across the South Island.

Air temperatures are likely to be above average across the country. Rainfall is expected to be normal over the North Island and north of the South Island, and below normal elsewhere. Normal or below normal soil moisture and river flows are likely in the North Island and the top of the South Island. In the remainder of the South Island, below normal soil moisture and river flows are very likely.

Through to May 2008, in addition to the earlier event this tropical cyclone season (cyclone Funa), there remains a significant chance of at least one more ex-tropical cyclone passing close to the country.

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