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Global setting and climate outlook

Global setting and climate outlook

La Niña strenghtens

Difference from average global SST (click to enlarge).

Monthly SOI values (click to enlarge).

La Niña conditions have strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and are expected to persist through into autumn 2008. For the first month since this La Niña event began, the SOI has shown a strong movement upwards, although the present prevailing conditions are described as moderate. Easterly trade winds, characteristic of La Niña, were strong and persistent during November over a wide longitude band centred on the Date Line.

Sea surface temperatures(SST) around New Zealand

New Zealand SST (click to enlarge).

SST anomalies in the New Zealand region continued the trend seen in October to more negative values, the reverse of what might be expected during La Niña. The November average SST anomaly for New Zealand was 0.0 °C. However, during summer, SSTs around New Zealand are expected, on average, to be above normal around the North Island and near normal around the South Island.

Outlook for December 2007 to February 2008

Regional outlook (click to enlarge).

In the New Zealand region over summer, mean sea-level pressures are expected to be higher than normal over the South Island, with more northeasterlies than usual flowing onto the northern North Island, and lighter than normal winds across much of the country.

Air temperatures are likely to be average or above average in all districts. Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the northern North Island, below normal in the west of the South Island, and near normal elsewhere. Soil moisture levels and streamflows are likely to range from above normal in the northern North Island to below normal in the west, south and east of the South Island.Through to May 2008, there is a slightly reduced chance of an ex-tropical cyclone passing within 500 km of the country, compared to the historical average risk. Should an ex-tropical cyclone approach New Zealand, the regions most at risk are the north and northeast of the North Island.

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