August

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 95 – August 2008

July’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was not as well-defined in July as in previous months.
• Very suppressed convection from Western Kiribati to Eastern Kiribati and south of the Equator from the Solomon Islands to the Northern Cook Islands.
• Below normal rainfall for Tonga, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, and New Caledonia.

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• The strong La Niña episode present in the Pacific during past months has gone and neutral conditions exist. Most climate models project neutral ENSO conditions into early 2009.
• Average or below average rainfall is very likely in the southwest Pacific encompassing the Northern Cook Islands, Tuvalu, Tuamotu, the Society Islands, the Austral Islands, and the Marquesas.
• Enhanced convection is likely from Papua New Guinea extending southeastward toward Vanuatu, through to the Southern Cook Islands, including Fiji, Niue, and Tonga, with above normal rainfall expected.
• Normal to above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to extend southeast from Vanuatu through to Pitcairn Island, with above average temperatures in the area surrounding Fiji, Tonga, and Niue. Below normal sea surface temperatures are forecast from Tuvalu southeast to French Polynesia.

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