October

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 85 – October 2007

September’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) over Papua New Guinea to the region south of Tonga; very active and further southwest than normal
• Suppressed convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati and further east
• Record September rainfall in Vanuatu, New Caledonia and parts of Fiji; well below average rainfall in Kiribati, Tuvalu, northern Cook Islands and Marquesas Islands
• Warmer than normal in the subtropical South Pacific, record high temperatures in parts of Fiji

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• La Niña conditions have developed in the equatorial Pacific, with a 50% chance of persisting through to February 2008
• Enhanced convection and above average rainfall expected from the Solomon Islands southeast to Niue, including Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa
• Below average rainfall likely over Western and Eastern Kiribati

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