September

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 84 – September 2007

August’s climate

• The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) over and east of the Solomon Islands; suppressed convection persists near the equator
• Rainfall well above average in the north of Vanuatu and parts of Central and Southern French Polynesia
• Well below average rainfall in western Viti Levu, Fiji
• Much warmer than normal in parts of Tuvalu, Tonga, Fiji, much of New Caledonia, and central and southern French Polynesia

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• ENSO conditions borderline La Niña, with a 60% chance of La Niña developing over the coming months
• Enhanced convection and above average rainfall expected over Vanuatu, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga, and Niue
• Below average rainfall likely over Tuvalu, Western and Eastern Kiribati

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