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Three-month outlook

Three-month outlook: August to October 2007

 

Rainfall outlook map for August to October 2007. (Click for enlargement)

Enhanced convection is likely over Samoa where rainfall is expected to be above average.

A large region of near or above average rainfall is likely from Papua New Guinea east southeastwards to the Austral Islands including, the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, the Northern and Southern Cook Islands, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and the Society Islands.

Supressed convection is likely over Western and Eastern Kiribati, and Tuvalu, where rainfall is expected to be below average.

Near or below average rainfall is likely over Pitcairn Island. Rainfall is expected to be near average over Tokelau, Tuamotu, and the Marquesas Islands.

The confidence in the forecast model skill is generally moderate this seasonal outlook.

Island group Rainfall outlook Outlook confidence
Samoa 20:35:45 (Above) Moderate
Papua New Guinea 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Solomon Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Vanuatu 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
New Caledonia 25:35:40 (Near or above) Low
Wallis and Futuna 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Northern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Fiji 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Tonga 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Niue 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Southern Cook Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Society Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above) Moderate
Austral Islands 20:40:40 (Near or above)) Moderate
Tokelau 30:40:30 (Near average) Moderate
Tuamotu Islands 30:40:30 (Near average) Moderate
Marquesas Islands 35:40:25 (Near average) Moderate
Pitcairn Island 40:40:20 (Near or below) Moderate
Western Kiribati 45:35:20 (Below) Moderate
Eastern Kiribati 40:35:25 (Below) Moderate
Tuvalu 45:35:10 (Below) Moderate

NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.