August

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 83 – August 2007

July’s climate

• South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) fairly in east inactive; suppressed convection persists along the equator
• Rainfall above average throughout much of Vanuatu; below average in parts of Southern French Polynesia, and over much of Kiribati and New Caledonia
• Much warmer than normal in Fiji, Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, and the Southern Cook Islands

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and seasonal rainfall forecasts

• ENSO indicators continue to fluctuate with a 50% chance of a La Niña developing over coming months
• Samoa likely to experience above average rainfall
• Below average rainfall expected over Western and Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu

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