Three-month outlook
Tropical rainfall outlook: June to August 2007
Enhanced convection is expected over the Solomon Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and Society Islands, where rainfall is expected to be above average.
A large region of near or above average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea southeastwards to the Tuamotu Islands including Vanuatu, Tokelau, Tonga, Niue, and the Southern Cook Islands.
Suppressed convection is likely over Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu where rainfall is expected to be below average. Near or below average rainfall is likely over Western Kiribati.
Rainfall is expected to be near average over rest of the countries in the region.
The forecast model skill is generally moderate for this time of the year.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Solomon Islands | 30:30:40 (Above) | Moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 25:30:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Tokelau | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Tonga | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Niue | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Tuamotu Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Fiji | 25:40:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 35:45:20 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 25:45:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 25:45:30 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Western Kiribati | 40:40:20 (Near or below) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 45:35:20 (Below) | Moderate |
| Tuvalu | 45:35:20 (Below) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.