Three-month outlook
Tropical rainfall outlook: May to July 2007
Rainfall outlook map for May to July 2007. (Click for enlargement)
Enhanced convection is likely over the Solomon Islands and the Southern Cook Islands, where rainfall is expected to be above average.
Near or above average rainfall is expected from Papua New Guinea southeastwards to the Pitcairn Island, including Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, Society Islands, Austral Islands, and Tuamotu Islands.
Suppressed convection is expected over Eastern Kiribati, where rainfall is likely to be below average. Near or below average rainfall is expected over Western Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Marquesas Islands.
Near average rainfall is likely for the rest of the countries in the region.
The skill of the rainfall forecast models are low to moderate for this time of the year.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Solomon Islands | 30:35:45 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:30:50 (Above average) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 15:45:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Low – moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Tuamotu Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 20:40:40 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 35:35:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Tokelau | 30:45:35 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Fiji | 35:35:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Tonga | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Niue | 30:40:30 (Near average) | Low – moderate |
| Western Kiribati | 40:40:20 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Tuvalu | 40:40:20 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 40:40:20 (Near or above average) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 50:20:30 (Below average) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.