Tropical rainfall outlook: February to April 2007
Even though the El Niño event has weakened in the tropical Pacific, its impact on rainfall in the Pacific region is expected to continue over the coming months.
Enhanced convection is expected over Western and Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna, Tokelau, and the Northern Cook Islands.
Near or above rainfall is likely over Society Islands, Solomon Islands, Southern Cook Islands, and the Austral Islands.
Suppressed convection with near or below average rainfall is expected over Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Tuamotu Islands, Marquesas Islands, and Pitcarn Island.Below average rainfall likely for New Caledonia.
Near average rainfall is forecast for Papua New Guinea, Samoa, and Niue.
Based on the current ENSO conditions and predicability barrier, the forecast model skill for this is time of the year is between low and moderate.
| Island group | Rainfall outlook | Outlook confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kiribati | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Eastern Kiribati | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Tuvalu | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Wallis and Futuna | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Tokelau | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Northern Cook Islands | 20:35:45 (Above) | Moderate |
| Society Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Solomon Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Southern Cook Islands | 20:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Austral Islands | 40:40:40 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Papua New Guinea | 20:45:35 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Samoa | 35:40:25 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Niue | 35:45:20 (Near average) | Moderate |
| Vanuatu | 45:40:20 (Near or below) | Moderate |
| Fiji | 40:40:20 (Near or below) | Low – moderate |
| Tonga | 40:40:20 (Near or below) | Moderate |
| Tuamotu Islands | 40:40:20 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Marquesas Islands | 40:40:20 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| Pitcairn Island | 40:40:20 (Near or above) | Moderate |
| New Caledonia | 45:35:25 (Below) | Moderate |
NOTE: Rainfall estimates for Pacific Islands for the next three months are given in the table. The tercile probabilities (e.g., 20:30:50) are derived from the interpretation of several global climate models. They correspond to the odds of the observed rainfall being in the lowest (driest) one third of the rainfall distribution, the middle one third, or the highest (wettest) one third of the distribution. On the long-term average, rainfall is equally likely (33% chance) in any tercile.