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Feature article

Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project

Janita Pahalad, Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Introduction

In 2001 a needs analysis for strengthening Pacific Islands meteorological services found that was of the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in the region were encountering many difficulties in providing basic services for the citizens and industries of their countries. One of the clear priorities was the need to enhance the ability of NMSs to provide seasonal climate prediction services. The needs analysis report included a project concept that would not only enhance NMS proficiency in seasonal forecasting, but would also build expertise in the prudent use of the forecasts. In response to this identified need, the Australian overseas aid and development agency (AusAID) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) are implementing a project enabling several participating Pacific Island countries (PICs) to generate and make use of seasonal predictions. This project is viewed as a contribution by Australia to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project.

The project commenced in mid 2003 and is scheduled to run for approximately three and a half years. Nine PICs are participating in the project: Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

The project objectives are:

  • To strengthen PIC NMS capacity in climate prediction, through providing a proven seasonal prediction system (based on BoM’s operational system), and training in its prudent use.
  • Enhance the ability of PICs to provide a sustainable climate prediction service to meet needs of users in climate-sensitive industries, through incountry workshops involving NMSs and potential user representatives.

Major activities

Project objectives have been achieved principally through four major activities:-

Software: A software package called SCOPIC (Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Pacific Island Countries) has been provided to all participating NMSs. Version 3 was released in August 2005, which includes new features added following feedback from the NMSs.

Training Workshops for the NMSs: Initial training of participating NMS personnel took place from June to September 2004. The workshops included 3 to 4 days training for the NMS personnel and a half-day briefing session for potential clients. The training focused on the production of climate prediction information using SCOPIC and the preparation of generic reports that would need to be tailored to client needs.

Stakeholders' Workshop: Three-day workshops on the application of climate predictions took place in all nine participating countries from January to July 2005. The participants included government, NGOs, and private sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, environment, water, media, health, infrastructure, utilities, disaster management, education, forestry, etc. New Caledonia and French Polynesia Météo-France, though not official partners in the project, have also been provided with the SCOPIC software and have participated in two of the in-country workshops (Vanuatu and Cook Islands).

Pilot Studies: To demonstrate the real benefits of climate information, including predictions in practical situations relevant to Pacific Island countries, the project is supporting a number of pilot schemes that will assist specific industries in identifying appropriate management responses to seasonal predictions.

Sugarcane in Fiji - The Australian Project Team, in collaboration with the Fiji Sugar Study Team, ran a two-day workshop on Raising Awareness on Linking Climate Forecasting and Decision Making Practice for the Fiji sugar industry in Lautoka, Fiji in mid March. The Project Team is now extending the pilot project to include software to predict sugarcane yield. This development is in response to a strong recommendation from the sugar industry during the March workshop.

Media, Public Awareness, and Communications – The objective of this pilot project is to improve communication between NMS staff and external agencies that use their products, notably the media and specialised stakeholder groups. Four PICs will participate under this project.

Application of Climate Forecasting in Water Management – The primary objective is to develop the capability of NMS staff to provide climatological information, including forecasts of droughts and their likely impacts on water resources, to water agencies and industries sensitive to water stress through the enhancement of the SCOPIC software package. Two PICs will participate under this project, which requires the existence of suitable data sets on water data availability.

Climate and Oceanographic Variability and their Impacts on Fisheries – The objective is to develop and deliver a "Fisheries Guide" to improve the awareness of NMS staff on: the impact of meteorological and oceanographic conditions on resource availability and fishing effort; how to access relevant supporting data and information; and how to present the material to interested stakeholders. The Fisheries Guide will be used as a specific example of communicating information to a client in the media workshop (as described above), and will be made available to all NMSs throughout the region.

The enhanced capabilities of PIC NMSs to generate and deliver local climate information, including seasonal predictions services using SCOPIC, will also improve their capacity to contribute to and draw from the advisory material provided in the ICU and the monthly teleconference discussions.

For more details on the project, please refer to the PI-CPP Website: www.bom.gov.au/climate/pi-cpp/index.shtml