Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast validation: May to July 2005

Enhanced convection and average or above average rainfall was expected over the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, as well as the Southern Cook Islands. Suppressed convection with below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands, with near or below average rainfall in the Tuamotu Islands, as well as Tuvalu and Tokelau. Rainfall was expected to be near average rainfall elsewhere in the region.

Areas of above average (and higher than expected) rainfall occurred from Tonga northeast to the Marqueasas Islands, including American Samoa and the Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia. Rainfall was below average (and lower than expected) over Tokelau, Wallis and Futuna, and the Austral Islands. Rainfall was near average elsewhere. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the May-July 2005 rainfall outlook was about 60%.