Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: April to June 2005

Average or above average rainfall was expected in Western Kiribati and the Northern Cook Islands. Suppressed convection with below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands with near or below average rainfall in Eastern Kiribati, Fiji, Samoa, and the Austral Islands. Rainfall was expected to be near average rainfall elsewhere in the region.

Areas of below average rainfall occurred from Tokelau to the Austral Islands, including the Cook Islands and the Society Islands, as well as northern New Zealand. Rainfall was above average and higher than expected from New Caledonia to American Samoa, including Vanuatu and Tonga, and also over the Marquesas and Tuamotu Islands. Rainfall was near average elsewhere. Totals were lower than expected in Tokelau, and over northern New Zealand. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the April – June 2005 rainfall outlook was about 60%.