Forecast validation
Forecast period: March to May 2005
Enhanced convection and above average rainfall were expected over Western Kiribati, with average or above average rainfall over Eastern Kiribati, Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Austral Islands, and Pitcairn Island. Suppressed convection with below average rainfall was expected over the Marquesas Islands and rainfall was expected to be average or below average over Fiji. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.
A large region of below average rainfall occurred south of the equator, including Tokelau, parts of Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, and central and southern French Polynesia. Enhanced convection or above average rainfall occurred over the Caroline Islands, Vanuatu , the Tuamotu and Marquesas Islands, and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was near average elsewhere.
Rainfall was higher than expected in Vanuatu, the Tuamotu and Marquesas Islands, and Pitcairn Island, and lower than expected in Western Kiribati, Samoa, Tokelau, the Cook Islands, and the Society and Austral Islands. The overall 'hit' rate for the March-May 2005 rainfall outlook was about 40%.