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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: February to April 2005

Enhanced convection was expected over Eastern and Western Kiribati and Tokelau, with average or above average rainfall in Tuvalu, the Northern Cook Islands, the Austral Islands, and Pitcairn Island. Suppressed convection with below average rainfall was expected in the Marquesas Islands, and average or below average rainfall was expected over the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji, as well as Samoa. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.

Areas of below average rainfall occurred over the Northern Cook Islands and northern New Zealand. Rainfall was above average in Vanuatu, Tokelau, Niue, and the Marquesas Islands, and near average elsewhere. Rainfall was higher than expected in Vanuatu, Niue, and the Marquesas Islands, and lower than expected in Eastern and Western Kiribati and Tonga. The overall 'hit' rate for the February-April 2005 rainfall outlook was about 65%, the highest score in 10 months. For the Southern Cook Islands, this was the 10th consecutive forecast with a good outcome.