Island Climate Update 54 - March 2005

Natural Disasters: Fijian Case Study
Irshad Ali, Save the Children Fiji
Natural disasters are regular occurrences in Fiji and affect people across the country in many ways – cyclones, floods, landslides, and drought. Although these disasters have some links with seasons, they are not completely predictable, nor are they assiduously tracked or mapped.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
The tropical Pacific Ocean remains in a weak El Niño state, but there was a late surge of atmosphere-ocean coupling in February, resulting in large (probably short-term) changes in a number of indicators. The Southern Oscillation Index dropped dramatically from near zero in January to about -3 in February, when Tahiti recorded its lowest February monthly-mean sea level pressure, the lowest February value on record. Strong westerly zonal wind anomalies are evident in the west Equatorial Pacific.

Climate developments in February 2005
There was a marked dipole in convection and very anomalous outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the Southwest Pacific in February. Strongly suppressed convection occurred over much of Australia and Indonesia, as well as Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and much of Fiji.

Tropical Cyclone Update
An active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved across the Southwest Pacific during mid February, and helped trigger the development of tropical cyclones Meena, Nancy, and Olaf. All three affected the Cook Islands, with Olaf also affecting Samoa. Tropical cyclone Percy affected Tokelau on 26 February then tracked to Cook Islands before dissipating. It was the fourth tropical cyclone since the beginning of February, and the seventh named cyclone for the season. High frequencies of tropical cyclones east of the Date Line (6 of the 7 this season).