November

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 50 – November 2004

October’s climate: The South Pacifc Convergence Zone was very active over the Solomon Islands. Well above average rainfall in parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia’s Loyalty Islands. Much drier in the main islands of New Caledonia, Fiji and southern Tonga. Warmer in Western Kiribati, Samoa, southern Tonga, the Southern Cook Islands and the Society Islands of French Polynesia.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): A weak El Niño persists in the central Pacific. Above average rainfall is likely in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and Tuvalu. Rainfall trending below or near average from Papua New Guinea southeast to the Southern Cook Islands and the Marquesas Islands.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Tropical rainfall outlook: November 2004 to January 2005.

Feature article: Tropical Cyclone Guidance.

Tropical Pacific rainfall: October 2004.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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