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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: October to December 2004

Above average rainfall was expected in the Austral Islands, with average or above average rainfall in Samoa, Niue, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society Islands. Enhanced convection with average or above average rainfall was also expected over Western and Eastern Kiribati and Tuvalu. Suppressed convection was expected over Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji, with average or below average rainfall there.

Enhanced convection and/or above average rainfall affected the region from Vanuatu to the southern Cook Islands, including Fiji and Tonga, as well as Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was higher than expected in these regions, as well as the Marquesas Islands. Rainfall was below average in New Caledonia, and lower than forecast in Tuvalu and much of central and southern French Polynesia. The overall 'hit' rate for the July to September 2004 rainfall outlook was about 50%.