Forecast validation

Forecast validation
Forecast period: June to August 2004
Enhanced convection with above average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, with average or above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati. Another region of average or above average rainfall was forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society and Tuamotu Islands, with above average rainfall in the Austral Islands.

Forecast validation

Forecast period: June to August 2004

Enhanced convection with above average rainfall was expected over Papua New Guinea, with average or above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati. Another region of average or above average rainfall was forecast for the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society and Tuamotu Islands, with above average rainfall in the Austral Islands. Suppressed convection was expected over Eastern Kiribati, extending southwest to Vanuatu, including Tokelau, Samoa, Tuvalu, and Fiji, where rainfall was expected to be average or below average. Rainfall was expected to near average elsewhere.

Enhanced convection and above average rainfall affected the region from Vanuatu to Tonga, including Fiji, Western Samoa, and Niue, as well as the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was higher than expected in both these regions. Rainfall was below average in Tuvalu. Rainfall was lower than forecast in Papua New Guinea, along with central and southern French Polynesia. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the June to August 2004 rainfall outlook was about 50%.

Tropical pacific rainfall - August 2004

Territory and station name August 2004 rainfall total (mm) Long-term average (mm) August 2004 percent of average Lowest on record (mm) Highest on record (mm) Records began
Australia
Cairns Airport 9.8 27 36 0 140 1941
Townsville Airport 0.2 13 2 0 258 1940
Brisbane Airport 10.6 43 25 0 126 1929
Sydney Airport 104.6 79 132 1 378 1929
Cook Islands
Rarotonga EWS 116.4 109 107 2000
Penrhyn 13.8 193 7 21 613 1937
Fiji
Rotuma 150.8 208 73 24 592 1912
Nadi 256 65 394 0 286 1942
Nausori 331.2 147 225 29 393 1956
Ono-i-Lau 293.8 118 249 2 348 1943
French Polynesia
Hiva Hoa, Atuona 202 95 213 14 231 1951
Tahiti – Faaa 17.4 44 40 0 111 1919
Tuamotu, Takaroa 36.4 66 55 12 170 1953
Tuamotu, Hereheretue 30 63 48 6 177 1962
Gambier, Rikitea 140 119 118 38 332 1952
Tubuai 135 136 99 41 293 1953
Rapa 217.4 229 95 108 567 1951
Kiribati
Christmas Is/Kirimati 21.8 54 40 0 373 1951
Tarawa 241 153 158 3 507 1946
Kanton Is 36 95 38 5 214 1937
New Caledonia
Ile Art, Belep 37.2 68 55 9 193 1962
Koumac 7 42 17 0 194 1951
Ouloup 72.4 75 97 0 341 1966
Ouanaham 92.4 81 114 3 206 1961
Poindimie 54.8 103 53 4 246 1965
La Roche 89.8 92 98 16 246 1956
La Tontouta 34.2 58 59 6 251 1949
Noumea 51.6 71 73 10 290 1863
Moue 42.8 85 50 18 187 1972
Niue
Hanan Airport 212 99 214 39 179 1996
New Zealand
Kaitaia 85 152 56 67 309 1985
Whangarei Aiport 66.8 139 48 27 325 19937
Auckland Airport 73 108 68 35 218 1962
North Tasman
Lord Howe Island 89.6 141 64 13 309 1886
Norfolk Island 63.6 123 52 46 230 1921
Raoul Island 125.4 128 98 6 494 1937
Pitcairn Island 312.4 118 265 15 325 1940
Samoa
Faleolo 92.9 161 58 8 332 1951
Apia 72.4 111 65 2 391 1890
Tonga
Queen Lavinia 52.3 117 45 10 444 1971
Niuatoputapu 52.2 97 54 5 333 1947
Lupepau’u 169.7 89 191
Salote Pilolevu Airport 224.9 100 225 10 341 1947
Nuku’alofa 336 117 287
Fua’amotu Airport 355.2 124 286
Tuvalu
Nanumea 175.8 233 75 35 705 1941
Nui Island 82.1 221 37 43 580 1941
Funafuti 159.8 232 69 41 1196 1927
Nuilakita Island 145.1 198 73 26 557 1942
Vanuatu
Pekoa 137.8 74 186 14 328 1951
Lamap 103 59 175 5 165 1960
Bauerfield 140.6 61 230 14 184 1985
Burtonfield 121.2 32 379 9 231 1961
Aneityum 139 92 151 14 404 1958
Wallis & Futuna
Wallis Island, Hihifo 20.6 133 15 20 323 1951

Rainfall totalling 200 percent or more is normally well above average. Totals of 40 percent or less are normally well below average. Highlighted values are new records.

Data are as received and may be subject to change with later quality control. The data in italics are obtained from synoptic weather reports and can sometimes differ from the true values, due to communications or station outage, etc. Superscripts represent days of missing data.