Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: May to July 2004

Enhanced convection was expected in the Southwest Pacific equatorial region resulting in above average rainfall in the Solomon Islands and average or above average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati, Samoa, and the Northern Cook Islands, as well as central and southern French Polynesia. Suppressed convection and a tendency towards below average rainfall was expected over the Marquesas Islands, Tuvalu and Tokelau, with near average rainfall elsewhere in the region.

A region of enhanced convection and above average rainfall affected the Solomon Islands and extended southeast to Samoa, including Fiji and Tonga, with another region of above average rainfall over the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was higher than forecast in Fiji, Tonga, the Marquesas Islands, and Pitcairn Island, and lower than expected in the Tuamotu Islands. The overall ‘hit’ rate for the May to July 2004 rainfall outlook was about 65%, the highest in the last six months.