July

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 46 – 7 July 2004

June’s climate: Active convergence about and west of the Date Line. High rainfall in parts of New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga and central French Polynesia. Equatorial westerly wind burst during the last few weeks of June.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The June Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -1.7 but the tropical Pacific continues in a neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. June sea surface temperatures (SST) were about 0.5°C above normal in the equatorial Pacific around Western and Eastern Kiribati.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three-month outlook: Above average rainfall is forecast for the Austral Islands. Near average or below average rainfall is expected over Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Fiji.

Feature article: ARGO in the South Pacific.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.

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