Island Climate Update 44 - May 2004

Fiji’s April Weather Bombs
Fiji Meteorological Service
April usually heralds the end of the South Pacific Tropical Cyclone and wet season. Being a transition month there is a slight chance of a Tropical Cyclone or extreme rainfall event.

Forecast validation
Forecast period: February to April 2004
Enhanced convection with above average or average rainfall was expected over the Solomon Islands and Western Kiribati, with a tendency toward below average rainfall predicted for the Marquesas Islands. The rest of the region was expected to experience near average rainfall.
Rainfall was above average over the Solomon Islands as expected and average or below average in Eastern Kiribati.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
SOI strongly negative
Equatorial SST anomalies near zero
The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state. Equatorial SST anomalies are near zero, and have changed little from March. The monthly SOI was strongly negative, largely as a result of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity in early April. The three month SOI (February-April) continues in the neutral range. For April and for February to April, the NINO3 SST anomaly was about +0.2°C, and NINO4 was about +0.4°C.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 44 – 6 May 2004
April’s climate: High rainfall, floods and loss of life in parts of Fiji, Well above average rainfall in northern and central French Polynesia, Tuvalu and Pitcairn Island, Drier over Samoa, the Southern Cook Islands, the Austral Islands of French Polynesia and parts of New Caledonia, Warmest April on record in the Southern Cook Islands.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SS

Climate developments in April 2004
Enhanced convection and above average rainfall occurred from the Solomon Islands across to Tuvalu, and from the Northern Cook Islands southeast over northern and central French Polynesia to Pitcairn Island. Rainfall was at least 400% of normal (over 400 mm) in the Marquesas Islands, and at least 200% of normal (over 200 mm) over much of the Society and Tuamotu Islands of French Polynesia, and Tuvlau.

Rainfall outlook for May to July 2004
Enhanced convection over the Solomon Islands
Suppressed convection over the Marquesas Islands
Enhanced convection is expected just west of the Date Line over the region of the Solomon Islands where rainfall is forecast to be above average. Average or above rainfall is likely over Western and Eastern Kiribati, Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands, the Society Islands and the Austral Islands.Average or below average rainfall is expected over Tuvalu and the Tokelau Islands.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi