Forecast validation
Forecast period: January to March 2004
Enhanced convection with above average or average rainfall was expected in parts of the tropical Southwest Pacific from the Solomon Islands extending east to the Austral Islands, including Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands and the Society and Austral Islands. Below average rainfall was predicted for the Marquesas Islands. The rest of the region was expected to experience near average rainfall.
Rainfall was higher than forecast in Papua New Guinea and from the Marquesas Islands to Pitcairn Island and average or below average elsewhere. Totals were lower than expected from New Caledonia to the Wallis and Futuna Islands (including Vanuatu and Fiji), in Eastern Kiribati, and from Southern Tonga to the Austral Islands of southern French Polynesia. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the January to March 2004 rainfall outlook was about 50%.