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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: December 2003 to February 2004

Above average rainfall was expected for Western Kiribati with enhanced convection expected in the equatorial region extending from the Solomon Islands eastwards to Tokelau, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna. Below average rainfall was forecast for Eastern Kiribati, with average or below average rainfall in the Marquesas Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Tonga, central and southern French Polynesia region. Rainfall was higher than forecast in the Marquesas Islands and Pitcairn Island, mixed over Vanuatu, and as forecast elsewhere. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the December 2003 to February 2004 rainfall outlook period was about 55%.