January
An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 40 – 8 January 2004
December’s climate: Enhanced convection was associated with the monsoon over Indonesia, northern Australia, and Papua New Guinea, which merged with the Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) north of the equator and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) to the southeast. The SPCZ was displaced much further south of its mean location, extending from Papua New Guinea southeast to the Austral Islands of French Polynesia and was more active than in recent months. It was rather unsettled in parts of New Caledonia, the southeast of Fiji, Wallis and Futuna Islands, American Samoa and the Austral Islands. Suppressed convection and below average rainfall persisted in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and parts of northern French Polynesia. Air temperatures were above average on most islands between 10°N and 15°S, as well as parts of Vanuatu and Tonga. ‘Heta’, the first tropical cyclone of the season , affected Samoa, and devastated Niue.
ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The Equatorial Pacific continues in a neutral state. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) have eased recently, but are still higher than normal. The mean Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for December was +0.9. Almost all of the global climate models indicate neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific for the first quarter of the new year.
Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?
Three month outlook: Average or above average rainfall from the Solomon Islands trending east to the Austral Islands, including Samoa, the Northern Cook Islands and the Society and Austral Islands. Below average rainfall is expected for the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall is likely elsewhere in the region.
Feature article: Pacific Island Training Institute on Climate and Extreme Events.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.
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