Forecast validation
Forecast period: October to December 2003
Average or above average rainfall was expected in Samoa. A large area of suppressed convection in the equatorial region was expected to extend south, to affect areas west of the Date Line, with below average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati, and average or below average rainfall in New Caledonia, and Vanuatu, as well as the Marquesas Islands. Average rainfall was expected elsewhere in the region. Rainfall was above average from the Solomon Islands east through to Samoa, and the southern Cook Islands.Totals were below average in Western and Eastern Kiribati, the Marquesas Islands, and Niue. Rainfall was higher than forecast in the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and the Southern Cook Islands, and lower than expected in Niue, and Tokelau.
The overall ‘hit rate’ for the October to December rainfall outlook was about 60%.