Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: September to November 2003

Average or above average rainfall was expected in Papua New Guinea, but suppressed convection in equatorial regions was expected to result in average or below average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati and the Marquesas Islands. Rainfall was also expected to be average or below average in Tuvalu and Fiji. Average rainfall was expected elsewhere in the region.

Observed rainfall was above average over northern regions of both Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.Totals were below average in an extensive region from the Coral Sea to Fiji and across to the Cook Islands, as well as throughout Western and Eastern Kiribati, and in New Caledonia. Mixed rainfall patterns occurred over Fiji. Rainfall was near average on most other islands. Over Tuvalu, the SPCZ remained weaker than average. Rainfall was lower than expected in the Austral Islands.