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October

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 37 – 8 October 2003

September’s climate: September rainfall was extremely low, being less than 25% of average in a broad region from Queensland (Australia) eastward to Fiji, including Vanuatu and Eastern Kiribati. Many stations in this region recorded rainfall totalling less than 10 mm, and some long-term low rainfall records were broken. Rainfall was also below average over the northern half of New Caledonia, the northern islands of Tonga, and parts of the Southern Cook Islands. September was the seventh consecutive month with below average rainfall in parts of Eastern Kiribati. Air temperatures were above average in many tropical islands east of the Date Line. However, they were well below average in parts of New Caledonia.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state, with little change in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from August. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was -0.3 for September. The global climate models indicate that the equatorial Pacific will remain in a neutral state until the end of southern hemisphere summer.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Suppressed convection is expected over the equatorial region resulting in below average rainfall in Western and Eastern Kiribati. Rainfall is also expected to be average or below average in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and the Marquesas Islands. Average or above average rainfall is likely for Samoa. Rainfall is expected to be near average elsewhere in the region.

Feature article: The climate of New Caledonia.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data.


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