Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: July to September 2003

Average or above average rainfall was expected from Papua New Guinea to Samoa, including Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna and Tokelau. Average or below average rainfall was forecast in the equatorial region east of Nauru, including the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall was expected elsewhere.

Rainfall was below average in an extensive region from the Coral Sea to Western Kiribati, and eastward along the equator to the region northeast of the Marquesas Islands, including, Vanuatu, the southeast region of the Solomon Islands and Tokelau. Rainfall was above average over much of Papua New Guinea and Pitcairn Island.

The region of below average rainfall extended much further south and west than predicted, with lower than forecast rainfall in the Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Vanuatu, Fiji, Wallis and Futuna, Samoa, and the Tuamotu and Austral Islands of French Polynesia. Rainfall was higher than forecast in Pitcairn Island. Mixed rainfall anomalies occurred over New Caledonia, Tonga, and the Society Islands.