Island Climate Update 37 - October 2003

The climate of New Caledonia
Luc Maitrepierre, Meteo-France, New Caledonia
New Caledonia is a tropical archipelago located between latitude 18°S and the tropic of Capricorn, and between longitudes 164° E and 168° E. The total land area is approximately 19,000 km� with 16,900 km� for the main island “Grande Terre”. Grande Terre is dominated by an almost continuous mountain range from northwest to southeast. The average altitude of the range is 1000 m with two peaks above 1600 m: Mt Panié in the north and Mt Humbolt in the south.

Forecast validation
Forecast period: July to September 2003
Average or above average rainfall was expected from Papua New Guinea to Samoa, including Tuvalu, Wallis and Futuna and Tokelau. Average or below average rainfall was forecast in the equatorial region east of Nauru, including the Marquesas Islands.

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures
Positive SST anomalies in the western Equatorial Pacific
Neutral ENSO conditions till early 2004
The Equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state, with little change in ENSO indices from August. The equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are generally positive in the western Pacific. The NINO3 SST anomaly was about +0.3°C in September (from +0.3°C in August). NINO4 remained unchanged at +0.7°C. The three month (July-September) means were +0.35°C and +0.7°C for NINO3 and NINO4, respectively.

Climate developments in August 2003
Extremely dry from Queensland east to Fiji
Areas of suppressed convection encompassed Vanuatu, Fiji, and the southern part of the Solomon Islands, as well as Eastern Kiribati. Rainfall was extremely low, being less than 25% of average in a broad region from Queensland (Australia) eastward to Fiji, including Vanuatu and Eastern Kiribati. Many stations in this region recorded rainfall totalling less than 10 mm.

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.
Number 37 – 8 October 2003
September’s climate: September rainfall was extremely low, being less than 25% of average in a broad region from Queensland (Australia) eastward to Fiji, including Vanuatu and Eastern Kiribati. Many stations in this region recorded rainfall totalling less than 10 mm, and some long-term low rainfall records were broken.

Rainfall outlook for October to December 2003
Suppressed convection in the equatorial region of Western and Eastern Kiribati
Average or above average rainfall is expected in Samoa
Average or below average rainfall in Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and the Marquesas Islands
Average or above average rainfall is expected in Samoa.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
This bulletin is a multi-national project with important collaboration from the following Pacific nations:
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
Fiji
French Polynesia
Kiribati
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Island
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
Vanuatu
Requests for Pacific island climate data should be directed to the Meteorological Services concerned.
Acknowledgements
This bulletin is made possible with financial support from the New Zealand Agency for International Development (NZAID), Wellington, New Zealand, wi