28 February 2007
Forecast validation
Forecast period: December 2002 to February 2003
The El Niño related region of enhanced convection over Western and Eastern Kiribati was expected to persist. Above average or average rainfall was also expected in Tuvalu and Tokelau. A tendency towards below average rainfall was forecast for a broad region from the Solomon Islands southeast to the Southern Cook Islands, including Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, and Niue, as well as the Marquesas Islands. Near average rainfall was predicted elsewhere.
The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was very similar to what was expected. However, the region of above average rainfall extended southeast to include the Northern Cook Islands, parts of French Polynesia, and Pitcairn Island.