November

An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region.

Number 26 – 7 November 2002

October’s Climate: The El Niño is continuing to affect southwest Pacific rainfall patterns, with enhanced convection and well above average rainfall over much of Kiribati, but contrasting areas of suppressed convection and well below average rainfall from Australia across to central French Polynesia. The SPCZ was enhanced in many areas near its average location about and west of the dateline, but as in recent months had little activity further east. Willis Island, in the western Coral Sea, has now recorded 15 consecutive months with less than 75% of average rainfall. Rainfall was less than 50% of average in many areas of New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Niue, and Central French Polynesia.

ENSO and sea surface temperatures (SST): The moderate El Niño is expected to last through the southern hemisphere summer. However, it is unlikely to be as strong as the 1997/98 event. The 3-month Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains steady at -1.2, and positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have intensified east of the dateline. The El Niño is expected to persist until autumn 2003.

Forecast validation: How well are we doing with our predictions?

Three month outlook: Above average rainfall is likely in both Western and Eastern Kiribati. Wallis & Futuna, Tuvalu and Tokelau are likely to experience average or above average rainfall. Below average or average rainfall is expected from Fiji to the Austral Islands including Samoa and Southern Cooks Islands. Below average rainfall is forecast for Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Tonga, and Niue.

Feature Article: Higher risk of Tropical Cyclones for South Pacific countries east of the Date Line.

Sources of South Pacific rainfall data

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