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Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: August to October 2002

The influence of the El Niño was expected to have a significant influence on rainfall anomalies, with more convergence and a tendency towards above average rainfall projected for Kiribati and Tuvalu, and average to below average rainfall from the Coral Sea to New Caledonia. The South Pacific Convergence Zone was expected to remain fairly inactive east of the date line, with average to below average rainfall likely from Samoa across to the Marquesas Islands, including the southern Cook Islands.

Average to above average rainfall was expected in French Polynesia and Pitcairn Island. Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

The overall rainfall anomaly pattern was similar to what was expected. However, the region of above average rainfall was larger than expected, extending to the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, and also to the Marquesas. The average or below average region east of the date line extended to include Niue and the Society Islands. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the August to October rainfall outlook was 65%.