ENSO & SST

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures

Moderate El Niño expected to last through Summer

Much of the equatorial Pacific remains warmer than normal

Central Pacific SST anomalies intensified further during October, with some areas around Eatern Kiribati more than 2.0°C above average. The horseshoe like Pacific SST anomaly pattern is more organised with some areas of cooler than normal SSTs.

NINO3 and NINO4 regions remain warmer than normal (+1.1°C to +1.2°C), with positive subsurface SST anomalies (+4.0°C) evident across the equatorialPacific east of the dateline, in the upper 150m.

The warmer than average SST anomaly along the east coast of Australia and the region southwest of New Caledonia weakened during October.

The region of warmer than average SSTs between Kiribati and Pitcairn Island has intensified further. Anomalous equatorial westerlies continue to persist, affecting countries west of the date line.

The El Niño event is expected to last throughout the southern hemipshere summer and is likely to continue affecting the South Pacific climate.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for October 2002

Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for October 2002