ENSO & SST

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures

El Niño may persist into early 2003

Further intensification of central equatorial SST anomalies

Central Pacific SST anomalies intensified further during September, with some areas around Kiribati more than 2.0°C above average, surface water temperatures being at least 30°C. The horseshoe like Pacific SST anomaly pattern has developed slightly since August, but at this stage is still surrounded by average SSTs rather than cooler than average waters. Above average (+0.9 to +1.2°C) equatorial SSTs continue in the NINO3 and NINO 4 regions, with positive subsurface SST anomalies (+3.0°C) evident across the equatorial Pacific east of the dateline, in the upper 150m.

Warmer than average waters continued to affect the east coast of Australia and the region southwest of New Caledonia. The broad region of warmer than average SST between Kiribati to Pitcairn Island has now merged.

Anomalous equatorial westerlies are still affecting the region about and west of the dateline.

The present El Niño event is expected to last throughout the rest of the year, affecting the southwest Pacific wet season, into early 2003.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for September 2002

Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for September 2002