Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: June to August 2002

Rainfall was projected to trend towards above average in Western and Eastern Kiribati and trend towards below average in Papua New Guinea, from New Caledonia northeast to Samoa, and in the Marquesas and Austral Islands of French Polynesia. Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

The rainfall outlook was correct for countries near the equator, where rainfall is well correlated to the SOI. However, rainfall was higher than expected in the Southern Cook Islands and Pitcairn. Vanuatu rainfalls were expected to be average, but ended up being very mixed. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the June to August rainfall outlook was 45%.