ENSO & SST

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperatures

The Central Equatorial Pacific remains warmer than average

El Niño likely to persist into early 2003

During August, there has been some intensification in patterns of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the equatorial central Pacific, where some areas particularly around Kiribati are more than 1.5°C above average .

There has been cooling in the Coral Sea especially around the northern cost of Australia, while SSTs have warmed along the southern coast of Australia. The region of warm SSTs southeast of the Pitcairn Islands has expanded north to Tuamoto Island (1.0°C above average).

A slight development toward a horseshoe like SST anomaly pattern occurred in the WesternPacific SSTs surrounding the warm tongue during August.

Equatorial SSTs persist above average (1.5°C – 2.0°C) in the NINO4 regions. The cool SST anomalies along the South American coast have further weakened during the last week of August.

Weaker than average tradewinds continued during August along most equatorial regions in the Western Pacific.

Based on current conditions and the model projections, this El Niño should persist into early 2003.

Sea surface temperature anomalies (°C) for August 2002

Mean sea surface temperatures (°C) for August 2002