Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: May to July 2002

Rainfall was projected to be above average in Western and Eastern Kiribati, as well as Tonga, and average or above average in Vanuatu and in southern and central French Polynesia. Below average rainfall was projected from the Northern Cook Islands to the Marquesas. Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

Rainfall was higher than expected in Samoa and the Marquesas Islands, and lower than expected in New Caledonia, Tonga, Kiribati, the Southern Cook Islands, and the Society Islands. Vanuatu rainfalls were expected to be average or above, but ended being very mixed. No data were available for Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands or Tokelau. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the May to July rainfall outlook was 65%.