Forecast validation

Forecast validation

Forecast period: April to June 2002

Rainfall was projected to be above average in the Western and Eastern Kiribati and Vanuatu, and average to above average in New Caledonia, Fiji, Niue and Pitcairn Island. Average to below average rainfall was expected for much of the region from the Solomon Islands east to the Marquesas including the Northern Cooks, and central French Polynesia.

Average rainfall was forecast for other areas.

Rainfall was as expected for many of the forecast areas. However, it was higher than forecast in Samoa and the Marquesas and Austral Islands. Rainfall was lower than expected in Niue, the Society Islands and Pitcairn. The overall ‘hit rate’ for the April to June rainfall outlook was about 60%.