Island Climate Update 202 - July 2017
The tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO (El Niño –Southern Oscillation) neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during June 2017, but oceanic and atmospheric anomalies were mixed, with some indicators leaning towards El Niño and others towards La Niña.
International guidance –in contrast to previous months –now suggests that the tropical Pacific Ocean is more likely to remain in an ENSO neutral state (60% chance) than to transition towards El Niño (35% chance) over the next three month period (July –September 2017)
July to September 2017 rainfall forecast
Regional drought potential advisory
Based on rainfall anomaly classification over the past six months and forecast rainfall anomaly classification over the next 3 months
Nauru, Kiribati Gilbert Islands: Below to well below normal rainfall experienced over the past 6 months. Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months in Nauru and normal or below normal rainfall is forecast for the Gilbert Islands.
Marshall Islands: A drought state of emergency remains in place for the northern atolls of the Marshall Islands.
Kiribati (Phoenix Islands): Below or well below normal rainfall experienced over 4 of the past 6 months. Normal or below normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.
New Caledonia: Below normal rainfall experienced over 3 of the past 6 months. Near normal rainfall is forecast over the next 3 months.